The equation
Traffic × merchant CTR × merchant conversion × commission per sale
The calculator rounds estimated purchases to the nearest whole number. It does not account for multi-item baskets, returns, attribution windows, or program exclusions.
A unit-economics model / not an income promise
See exactly what has to be true.
Model a steady month, stress-test the fragile inputs, and compare the result with the one-time cost of the starting asset.
Revenue sits at the end of a measurable chain. Cost and time remain visible because a revenue scenario is not a profit forecast.
Use ranges, not one answer
Model a weak, base, and strong case.
Traffic and click-through are usually the least certain inputs. Test a conservative case before deciding a niche can support the investment.
Reality check
Month-one traffic is normally small.
A new domain can take 9–18 months to build meaningful organic traffic. This tool models a steady month, not the path required to reach it.
Estimated revenue in a steady month $192
Merchant clicks400
Estimated sales32
Commission per sale$6.00
Revenue per visitor$0.04
A model is a diagnostic
If the base case only works with heroic inputs, the niche is telling you something.
Run the niche-fit diagnostic next, or send the category for a human pressure test before you commit.